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Trending Questions. What can you hold in your right hand but not in your left hand? Still have questions? Find more answers. Previously Viewed. Unanswered Questions. What characteristics of a tragic hero does Macbeth possess and banquo lack? Fifty years ago weather observations were made with in situ instruments or by eye or ear and plotted by hand on paper weather maps Table 1. Observations were analyzed subjectively, and forecasts were based largely on the empirical skill of government forecasters.
Weather and cli-. Technological surprises include the World Wide Web and the pervasive presence of the Internet in our lives, neither of which was foreseen a decade ago. BOX 5. An NRC report A Vision for the National Weather Service: Road Map for the Future a looked ahead to the year to much improved weather and climate forecasts and how information derived from these forecasts would be increasingly valuable to society. The report envisions weather forecasts approaching the limits of atmospheric predictability about two weeks and new forecasts of chemical and space weather, hydrologic parameters and other environmental parameters.
It describes the use of ensemble forecasts that project nearly all possible future states of weather and climate and how these ensembles can be used in a probabilistic way by a variety of users. It asserts that as the accuracy improves and measures of uncertainty are better defined, the economic value of weather and climate information will increase rapidly as more and more ways are found or created to use information profitably.
New markets, such as the weather derivatives market, will be created. Some markets will be strengthened e. Other markets may diminish, such as the role of human forecasters in adding value to numerical forecasts beyond one day or in preparing graphical depictions of traditional weather forecasts. The weather information system was run almost entirely by the National Weather Service NWS , with academia focused on basic research and the private sector just beginning to emerge.
Advances in technology, including remote sensing from satellites, radars, and in situ sensors; computers; information and communication technologies; and numerical modeling, coupled with increased understanding derived from investments in research, have produced a weather and climate information system in the United States that is at the cutting edge of science and technology. As scientific understanding and computational capabilities improved throughout the second half of the twentieth century, private companies found opportunities to use government data to create value-added products for clients.
However, as little as 10 years ago , federal government agencies still collected nearly all of the data and developed and ran the.
Today the situation is radically different. Declining instrument costs have permitted state and local government agencies, universities, and private companies to deploy Doppler radars and arrays of in situ instruments. Increased computing power 4 and bandwidth at rapidly dropping prices have enabled a substantial number of private companies and universities to run their own models or models developed by others. The development of new communications technologies e.
Indeed, advances in networking have transformed the weather and climate enterprise Box 5. Finally, the widespread availability of visualization tools has made it easier for all sectors to display and better communicate weather information.
These changes have made it possible for each of the sectors to provide services that were only recently in the domain of another sector e. Studying these different phenomena and developing products and tools to mitigate their impacts requires data of different spatial coverage and resolution, collected from a mixture of satellite instruments, local arrays, and independent stations. Satellite instruments provide high spatial and temporal resolution global coverage.
The satellite observations are complemented by in situ measurements from radiosondes, aircraft, and surface stations. Doppler radars track and monitor small-scale severe storms and precipitation systems. Most instruments collect data continuously, but some are event driven.
Examples include the lightning detection network, which is triggered by cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and reconnaissance aircraft that fly into hurricanes. Other meteorological instruments can be adjusted to collect higher-resolution data for specific events—for example, geostationary satellites and radars, which can scan at a higher rate over areas of severe weather, thereby providing greater temporal resolution on the order of minutes.
The computers running global prediction models are 20 times more powerful than those a decade ago. Cook, , Ahead of the weather, U. News and World Report , April 29, p. Networking is having an increasing impact on all aspects of the weather and climate enterprise. Advances in network technologies have enabled automated data collection, as well as remote access to specialized computing servers that support models and forecasting.
Networking has also dramatically increased the speed at which weather products are available and the number of users they reach. However, networking is not monolithic. The networking required for remote sensors and data collection may be wireless and self-organizing and may or may not have to be high bandwidth. Distributed and remote modeling and forecasting require extremely high bandwidth reliable networks to specific locations.
However, excessively high or reliable bandwidths are not required for disseminating weather forecasts, watches, warnings, advisories, and other information products to the public. The advances in networking rely to a large extent on improvements to underlying technologies.
Terrestrial and satellite radio technologies provide access to instruments and enable operation in conjunction with ad hoc, self-organizing networks, a in which the sensors on the net may also play a role in the infrastructure of the network itself as routers and forwarders of traffic.
First, as computer prices decline, home and office computers are becoming increasingly pervasive. The widespread availability of personal computers made the provision of network services possible, but it was the combination of e-mail, the World Wide Web, and web browsers that made them economically viable.
Today, the majority of office workers in the United States have networked workstations on their desks. Second, the rise in the wireless cellular telephone and other wireless technologies is enabling people to stay connected while mobile. The combination of computer networks and wireless technologies dramatically increases the avenues for broad, rapid dissemination of urgently important weather information.
An example is the micron-sized sensors under development that would be dispersed from aircraft to gather and relay real-time data for meteorological and military purposes. See S. The effectiveness of such sensors depends on the power and infrastructure of the network. Every time an antenna is turned on for sending or receiving, it uses significant amounts of power compared with the power required to make measurements or perform simple computations like data compression.
The relationship between transmission distance and power is exponential. For an untethered device dependent on irreplaceable battery power, the trade-off is clear—shorter and less frequent communication yields a longer life span of measurements.
If one is placing devices in remote locations, there is great advantage to making every device a sensor, even if part of its responsibility is to relay information from neighboring sensors toward a concentration point.
Such a system must be organized to both conserve power effectively and deliver the data, by turning nodes on and off as required. In such a system, the data will follow different routes at different times and work around nodes whose power has been completely depleted.
Optical networking holds the promise of providing both extremely low latency speed of light and high bandwidth because many wavelengths can occupy the same fiber without interference. Left : Improved resolution provided by upgraded radars. Right : The number and frequency of meteorological observations will increase over the next decade. Although most of this increase will come from new satellites, it also reflects expansions planned for the Cooperative Observer Network and other surface observational networks, additional aircraft reports, and additional radar data.
This mixture of observing approaches is also a cost-effective way of meeting the needs of the diverse weather and climate communities. New observing systems currently being considered are intended to provide better accuracy, resolution, and coverage Figure 5.
The latter is important not only for weather prediction but also for preserving the continuity of the climate record. Sensors that can be deployed on aircraft or on the ground are becoming cheaper, smaller, and more powerful, primarily because of the continued decrease in cost and increase in capability of semiconductors.
As a result, universities, state governments, and the private sector can increasingly afford to purchase, install, and maintain low-cost sensors for purposes that would not have been considered in the past e. The growth of private networks raises both scientific and policy issues. Most data collected by private companies and some data collected by state and local government agencies are proprietary see Chapter 4. Since proprietary data and the methods by which they were collected cannot be scrutinized, it is difficult to determine whether the sensors were deployed in a scientifically rigorous manner e.
This uncertainty limits the value of proprietary data to the weather and climate enterprise. A start-up company, Airborne Research Associates, has developed a network of lightning sensors that capture all flashes, including cloud to cloud, not just cloud to ground, as is currently provided by Vaisala-Global Atmospherics, Inc.
Presentation to the committee by D. The atmosphere-ocean-land system is complex and yields its secrets slowly. Models for understanding the system and for generating forecasts are only as good as the level of scientific knowledge, quality and coverage of input data, and computer-processing capabilities permit.
Numerical models incorporate the dynamical equations governing the changing state of the atmosphere and oceans and fill in the spatial and temporal gaps in the global observing system see Chapter 2 for an overview of weather and climate models. They will continue to do so as very high resolution data and algorithms describing processes such as cloud interactions and land-surface and boundary-layer physics are incorporated.
Advances in understanding and improved data coverage place increasing demands on processing capabilities. Indeed, one of the primary constraints on the accuracy and quality of forecasts is the computational effort required 1 to process effectively the large volume of observations that are collected and 2 to run numerical weather prediction models with high spatial resolution. For example, a recent NRC report found that ensemble models require 20 Gflops each day for weather prediction and 2.
For example, the new NWS supercomputer—an IBM-built massively parallel machine that uses more than conventional microprocessors—will be able to resolve differences in weather for Manhattan and Queens. The visualization grid size can be varied, allowing greater detail to be seen in some parts of the weather system than others. Integrating visualization tools with high-resolution weather models makes it possible to study the real-time development of storms in three dimensions, albeit crudely compared to what will be possible in the near future.
Advances in modeling and the computational and visualization tools that support them can be made by all three sectors, but access to improved models may vary. New or improved models generated by the public or academic sector are likely to be placed in the public domain, whereas models developed by the private sector or commercialized government agencies in other countries are likely to be proprietary.
The electric circuit with many components such as transistors and wiring opened the door to the evolution of the laptop, followed by the smartphone and tablet.
The invention of the computer, and especially the personal computer, will continue to shape our lives. The elevator unleashed a new wave of architecture and the age of the skyscraper. A new invention, the MULTI , the first elevator designed to move horizontally as well as vertically, is similarly poised to open new paths to urban planning and building design. No other modern advancement in science has transformed medicine so radically as the Human Genome Project.
Completed in , the HGP mapped every gene in the human genome. It opened the door to medical studies on genes associated with diseases and led to a flourishing of biotech companies seeking to find new applications in healthcare. Truly a vehicle for change: once the first car rolled off the assembly lines, it never stopped moving. Originally seen as a panacea for all mobility challenges, the car has had to adapt to a global demand to eliminate fossil-fuel use and decrease traffic.
Enter the next generation: hybrid cars, electric cars, and driverless cars , proving the car will be with us for centuries to come. While cars accelerate our day-to-day life, getting from A to B can still be a challenge, especially in a new place. Using satellites, it pinpoints a location and helps you navigate.
More recently, it has been the cornerstone of a host of smart city and urban mobility apps. We hate to admit it, but the smartphone has become ubiquitous and absolutely necessary for modern living.
One reason why it is so special is that it can be linked up to, and harnessed by, so many other technical advancements, from GPS to mobile banking to fitness apps. When Apple launched its first smartphone in , there was simply no going back.
Technical advancements have always proven to be exciting because they are never stand-alone. They give rise to new inspirations and the next innovation, often launching a new era, whether in medicine, communications, or mobility. Renewable Energy Sources , photo by hpgruesen, taken from pixabay. Laser Show , photo by Jure Tufekcic, taken from unsplash. Pink Laser , photo by Parcreativo, taken from commons.
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