Currently, Alex Rodriguez has home runs, and he is only three away from his milestone th. Yet, I feel like not very many people at all are mentioning the fact that A-Rod is only three home runs away from ; as if this isn't newsworthy!
While A-Rod sits at , there have been some events which have his milestone chase on the back burner for the time being. Understandably, those events, especially the stories of Sheppard and Steinbrenner, take precedence over A-Rod's home runs. However, even before any of that happened, Rodriguez was still rapidly approaching , and few seemed to be talking about it. I did a quick Google search earlier today to see how much A-Rod and his home runs were in the news.
I came across a few articles in more major publications as well as in some blogs. B elieve it or not, there was a time when Ken Griffey Jr. The Seattle Mariners, it was said, had the guy who was going to challenge every record in the book. Fast forward 16 years, and A-Rod has largely fulfilled that promise, now challenging what was the most sacred record the sport had to offer. He is having his worst season since he was a rookie, batting just. This, after a surprising 33 homers last season.
That said, New York has also officially turned the page on contending with its current group of overpaid and underperforming stars, and the club is in full rebuilding mode — as evidenced by the recent jettisoning of Carlos Beltran, Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Ivan Nova at the deadline.
You know, the perfect slot for, say, a year-old chasing a major milestone —. In other words, this season could have seen us crown a new home run king for the second time in eight years. Of course, that scenario doesn't allow for any kind of decline as Rodriguez has aged, and the likelihood that he could have maintained that breakneck pace across those missing games from his age—38 seasons is slim.
Put those on his ledger and it would push him to , past not only the Say Hey Kid and the Bambino, but also putting the Hammer in sight before the end of the season, and Bonds on tap for ' If instead I scale his actual annual production from '08 onward—as if the injury bug hadn't bitten him so hard and the steroid issue never arisen—to a more substantial but still slowly decreasing amount of playing time, using his rate of home runs per plate appearance instead of per game, it might look something like this:.
For Rodriguez's projection, I took a straight average of his —13 rate. By that scenario, A-Rod would have passed Mays near the very end of the '12 season, had he been able to stay healthy, and positioned himself to pass Ruth sometime this year; catching Bonds by the time his contract expired following the '17 season, however, would have required a bit of a rebound.
Coming into '15, sitting at , Rodriguez would have needed to average 21 homers a year, a level he otherwise hadn't reached since ' More likely, he would have left himself a handful of homers shy of by the the end of , but he might have been in striking distance during his age season in , whether with the Yankees or another team. With no steroid allegations to his name, and a less dire injury history, finding a suitable contract for that season wouldn't have been a tall task.
Rodriguez can't undo what's done, of course, and he's unlikely to maintain his current pace, which projects to 40 homers over games, or 32 over plate appearances. It's still probably unrealistic to expect more than 20—25 homers this year even if he stays healthy, though that at least gives him a fighting shot at reaching Ruth's before his career ends.
Aaron and Bonds would seem to be beyond his reach. Are you a Stathead, too? Subscribe to our Free Newsletter. This Month in Sports Reference Find out when we add a feature or make a change. Do you have a sports website? Or write about sports? We have tools and resources that can help you use sports data.
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