Do you have confidence in the president? Do you approve of the "socio-economic policy" since ? Do you want early elections for president? Do you want early elections for parliament? By adding question two, Khasbulatov hoped to cancel out Yeltsin's expected approval from question one. To make certain of getting him, the anti-Yeltsin forces insisted that some of the questions would amount to amending the present constitution.
He would thus need not only 50 percent of those voting but 50 percent of Russia's million eligible voters. Since many don't bother to vote, this would be almost impossible.
Yeltsin naturally insists that 50 percent of those voting would be enough. Both sides have appealed to Russia's Constitutional Court.
But the court isn't the impartial legal body that its name implies. Valery Zorkin, the chief justice, was the first to denounce Yeltsin for threatening to rule by decree. In a highly political vote, the court then ruled he had violated the constitution on the basis of what it heard Yeltsin say without waiting to see the actual decree.
Yeltsin paints his congressional opponents as "Communists" when, in fact, they include centrists who claim to be reformers as well. Without the centrists, the Communists and their extreme nationalist allies don't come close to having a majority. Nor is Khasbulatov a Communist. Before they fell out, he was picked for the speakership by Yeltsin. Many of the centrists are large-factory and collective farm managers who grew up in the old system and are actually running the economy.
One thing they shy at are the millions of unemployed that could come from some of the measures Yeltsin's young reformers are pushing with the advice of American professors who have found new careers in prescribing what should be done.
This inside baseball is a lot more than you would want to know about most countries. But so much depends on who rules Russia that the threat to Yeltsin has become President Clinton's first major foreign policy crisis.
As far as Washington can see, he is the best guarantor that Russia will continue on the path to democracy and a free market economy. The danger is that with his defeat, it could fall into more unfriendly nationalist hands, not to mention the threat of disintegration and civil war. Not only does Russia still have enough nuclear missiles to obliterate major U. The world simply can't live with another Yugoslavia adding to the world disorder in which the United States, to be prudent, would have to forgo the cuts in the defense budget on which better life depends.
If he can't, how can he carry out his program? While nothing Clinton took to Vancouver can itself "save" either Yeltsin or Russia, neither can the president afford to sit on his hands while Russia is "lost," as China was "lost" a couple of generations ago with the help of some of the same people who then blamed President Truman for it.
Subscribe Manage my subscription Activate my subscription Log in Log out. Regions Tampa St. Letters to the Editor Submit a Letter. Investigations Narratives Pulitzer Winners. Connect with us. About us. Obituaries Homes Jobs Classifieds. Careers Advertise Legal Contact. Log in. Tax collections fell markedly during the election, especially as subsidized factories paid wages instead of taxes.
Many workers wait months for their wages, sometimes because corrupt factory directors bank their payrolls to earn interest instead of paying employees.
What Russia needs now is more economic reform, not less. Not until the market economy is able to pick up the slack from dead-end state enterprises will progress be made. Yeltsin has hesitated to remove the remnants of state involvement in the economy, but delay has only made things worse. Those ex-communist countries that have made the most radical reforms - Poland and the Czech Republic - are those that have had the most economic success.
Whether reform can progress will depend mightily on the power struggle that Yeltsin has touched off with the inclusion of a rival, Gen. Alexander Lebed, in his administration. While the move was politically smart and may have been crucial in helping Yeltsin win the second round, General Lebed has been a loose cannon during his short stint as national security adviser. He has boldly grabbed for turf, asserted that Russia needs a vice president the Constitution does not provide for one and that he is the man for the job, made his own nominations for the Cabinet, and unjustly excoriated minority religious groups.
Chernomyrdin, who has pushed market reforms and counseled peace in Chechnya, has indicated he has no intention of playing second fiddle to Lebed. Either the general will have to throttle back - a direction not naturally in Lebed's repertoire - or Yeltsin will have to make a clear choice between the two. What role democrat Anatoly Chubais or dismissed national-security aide Alexander Korzhakov and other hard-liners might play in a new administration will be important signals of the direction Yeltsin will move.
The foreign-policy implications are enormous. Yeltsin faces the historic Russian choice of cooperating with the West and becoming a real part of Europe, or chasing the chimera of Russian messianic "third way" isolationism.
The second means adopting a narrow Russian-nationalist stance that, while it will feel good to some, will alienate Russia's neighbors and bring no dividends to Russia's economy or people.
Russia wants to be respected as a "great power" and to be an indispensable player in the world order. The best way to get there is by deepening democracy, extending economic reform, ending the bloodshed in Chechnya, and working with the West to solve problems in the Middle East and the Balkans. The dead-end route is to turn away from market economics, continue to meddle in the affairs of ex-Soviet republics - threatening Estonia and Latvia, encouraging unification with Belarus, using Russian peacekeepers to muscle the Moldovan and Georgian governments - and encourage the likes of Saddam Hussein and Slobodan Milosevic to resist UN Security Council directives.
Yeltsin's reelection leaves the door open to the path of peace and prosperity. Now the world waits to see if Russia will walk through it. Already a subscriber? Monitor journalism changes lives because we open that too-small box that most people think they live in. We believe news can and should expand a sense of identity and possibility beyond narrow conventional expectations. Your subscription to The Christian Science Monitor has expired. You can renew your subscription or continue to use the site without a subscription.
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